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ЇOxо
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ЇOxо
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ժҪЇOxԴǰK“ѽëɖ|OxʱСƽ񡢺\ʱڣOxʱM֮еϰƽOxʱЇǧꌣĻͬ롢Ⱥ\췴˄Լëɖ|ԣʹЇOxOxЪһġСƽOxʱ@OxϰƽOxʱʵOxOxؚwϰƽڮһȦCЇOxȦʼëɖ|ϰƽʷSڮһȦCЇOxȦͬʼëɖ|ϰƽ

PI~Ox ëɖ|ʱ Сƽʱ ϰƽʱ

҂йʷһҪҕǣǾǘOxЇĘOxԴͷ˵ǰKëɖ|˵ʮ¸һ•푣o҂R˼x˵ûKͲЇbҲЇOxOxЇDzƷcЇͳĻʙƶȾбʅ^e

1949йᣬȫPKOxЇ񲡶һӔUɢӵÿһ䣬Kһֱm졣OxAǰδеĺƽ٣͵ľëɖ|lӁKȵĻЇоdǧĻʙĻ֮˹ȥᣬKëɖ|lĻʹЇOxʬFcK“OxT಻ͬ

ĸYᣬЇ_ʼMСƽOxʱ_L_ʮĸ_ŕѳ̡ȫ˳ߵƄ£ʱxٳЇǿOxcЈЇڑ׷y{͵ăڛ_ͻСƽȱwƸĸ֧εġ_Ѽĸ_ű׶˅Їٴߵ˕ʷʮ·ڣ˳ijطëɖ|Ox·

ϰƽʱo˴𰸡ʾ^߸ĵġа·K“w͖|ŷ׃lˡoһЃQ´R˼xëɖ|˼ģͨ^܊OĸIСMͷЇҙҪսYСƽOxʱЇصëɖ|OxʱڇHPϵϣϰƽחСƽ27⽻ᘣ侲^졢ס_ő躹Bޡ׾Qͷչ_ͱˡҕս⽻¹ڲl֮Ї[m飬ᄳȫσ|˸Ⱦ300fđK

ϰƽʱxʷЇӵԸLкĩ·چЇйO౩cR^ӭδ֮׃֡@һpݔս

ϰƽڮһЇOxȦĘOxOxٻؚwOx

һOxʼڡơڡ

OxʷƾõĕʷտՠKarl Popper˵ͼČW˵ǹĴOxČW˵ϣ˹_ҲИOxҪ[1]أHannah ArendtɣJacob TalmontJOxF18obF^УFʱxcƵİlչγɺͰlչṩlOxʶΑBҲ^Ҫء[2]

Ox˷Ăͳ19oϰҶuֵPγ帡˹xIJʲSOxϣռ{xOxڡ񻰼һָU˟obAձ־ϣՄtǿ{ˇҺͷN塣bxxɠ˘Oxֱ,ȴͬʁK໥ںϣ[˶ʮoµһĻ[3]

OxҲQȫxָһȫȫwMȫƵwʽ˹أRobert Conquest˶xژOxwҲJκƣKMƹ˽ÿһ档[4] ָOxһNʷϏδ^µͳΑB򠑘OxǠij˵棬Ǐص׵طһԣе[5]Oxʷһ̵θԭʼĿԇҙCԡڴ֮ǰκՓnjơֻnjעڹРOxҪ˼һͳֻΡСO΄tҪΡġ[6]OxһNFFͬڵۇʱڡͳΣͬʱǿ{FҲǿ{ǿ󣬲ƣԵԽ͹Ү˵ؓFğoڡoܣʵ񣬏w`҂ĕʷϵĘOxҿԿ{‡ν־Ą{‡ǰK“Ї^ĸ˵ľ`ꡢ˄ӡ@NаOӋ˵ĵԣo˽ҡI͠҂Ըе@ѽڽʣcxڂxȫ㣡[7]

PژOxΌWҰ¡Raymond AronҪ˵[8]ΌWҸYYϣCarl FriedrichͲ˹Zbigniew Brzezinski˵[9]19417£ʱvʹmЪWlˡcOě_ͻݽڴ˵УmҡՓ˹Oxʮĸ[10]mJ@ʮ׼ȷخ˘OxĪbĿڱУP߲ɼ{YYϣͲ˹OxȫʶΑBͨɪIĆһ\ʹܾ͇ұșCƵĿwƣ܊꠵ĉŔࣻͨѶֶεĉŔ࣬Լͨ^ӋʵָͿơ[11]͘OxʶΑBԣ҂ԺθһxһһI䡣

Oxo˾޴Ğyս̫˷N^K“bϴկtɫ޴ɱЇ1959-1961ĺĻȣσ|@а˄г˟oԩꡣ

Oxһ_ʼKǡǡơǡȡ־ʶΑBK˵Տġơˏص׵ġ[12]

ڶëɖ|Oxʱ

1949йᣬƶȫPKɠKOxꇠIһ֡ЇǧdӲ^ĻʙĻ֮˹ȥᣬKPϵѣëɖ|lĻĶʹOx˸ЇγЇOx

ëɖ|ʱĘOxcK“OxͬķͳƶȡͷԵҲ@ą^eҪwFڣ

һǣʶΑBK“OxʶΑBR˼帺˹֘ĹbxайʶΑBK“а⣬ëɖ|bxՓ˼ЇrصĴͬ롣ĸУЇR˼xëɖ|Z¼R˼xĵǧlfwwףһ䣺췴

ǣʙơйǧĻʙĻЇOxǿҵĂͳëɖ|ֱԲMQԼǡR˼ʼʡëɖ|ʱIԴЇͳġ}鹝͡ݡĸϺĿ‘cʩԣëɖ|Ҫäĵĵزëɖ|Ҫŵĵز[13]

ǣȺ\췴OxoՓͨ^řC϶ŒȫλơЇOxtȻͬȡȺ\췴ķʽԱȺ\ƷйԼĹwơëɖ|Ҫֹ˽ƌйʴJѽĹwƌʹйɻʮbAΨһij·Ƶt^ؽȺ\췴ķʽQšֈ󡢴qՓ¶ϡ

ǣĻЇOxcëɖ|ĂP“˵ûëɖ|ЇOxoK“ķ棬y԰lȴϴëɖ|ЇOxĿOӋ`ߡëɖ|WLڏrx܊»ӣgС˵Ȥ硶xˮ䰂[14]ȣʹëɖ|ĂԾǿҵwFԡԺ͚ҰU

ëɖ|ķwFڳСYԷQcY䘷oFcY䘷oFcY䘷oFš´y´Ρдoo족wFڌΌֵĺ飬ԼĽӰ˄ֱ룻ҰUwFڕѴ˄Уѹ˄ӣʾǧ֮һɱˣ˄Ќ55f֪ʶӴɵȡĻHӳëɖ|ϣĸҲʬFصåcָ֮˵ʵڻ^ȥġĻʶĴ󱬰l[15]

СƽOxʱ

ëɖ|ȥᣬĸS֮YЇ_ʼMСƽʱP߽綨Сƽʱw˽ͺ\ִʱڡǣȷbͳεǰ£M޵wƸĸ^ֵĽwƸĸmȌɣbxʶΑBǿ{Їԣ֮Їɫxнǿ˽нȡ

СƽʱYëɖ|ʱ˄ӣԽOģЇBϢСƽʱҲԷ֠ʱڣһ1978ĸ_ŵ1989ҫִʱڣһǰ˾˄ӱѹᵽ񡢺\ִʱڡںִʱڣЇwƸĸͽwƸĸKУ__ɌɣWgӿЇ@ЇyõΡСꖴS1989찲TɱꖱTЇwƸĸȻֹйִϷԣСƽ_ЇЈĸЇ_ʼM뵽Fʱxʱڡ\ƌWlչ^MһʶΑB2001Їó׽Mɠ繤SЇ_ʼǿ

οСƽʱĘOxˣWg^ҪWg^cУOx˜OxxOx

2005꣬¡Їġ˜OxĩJЇĸY1989ĴɱOxʱ֮ЇM˜OxʱЇ˹ģʽ֮OxʱSëɖ|ȥYʱЇF^һɵʱڡ@Nϵɺͽĸ_ʼ־ЇM˱^͵Oxwơ[16]

J԰Ї1989u͵@NƶȷQ˜OxwƣͬژOxԭͣcOxԭИOĜYԴһ棬׃OxȴOx@ą^e˜OxwF˲ֵOxԭͻؚw֮ͼOwƵһN׃Ρ@NwƵ漯mȻͨ^ȡ@ӵ׃ε棬@N˜Ox̎һϵyԿ˷֮јOxΡӄĬFʵ@N׃@ȻһNMxÓ֮[17]ġ˜Oxγ^п^쵽ԭtһDZָ߶ȵĩʶʶ֧µQͳ߲١ܛ`Իy}ͳμńC@ӵ`wFʶΑBᘣСƽᘌʡ@ʶΑBش}ġՓᘣͽƶxS෽档[18]

ڌġᣬСƽOx綨˜Ox^cPֲ߳ͬĿPJMܡġᣬЇwƸĸͣͣСƽ_νxЈȳɾЇҲƶ⡢ʢС@Ⱦ͵œSʵΣCĘOxcĸYġǰKûбʅ^eֻƵij̶Ȳͬѡ

Ų䌢СƽʱOx綨x[19]xһΌWϵĸСƽʱcĸPJKûгOxɚwOx

TxǧСƽʱĘOx綨OxTxָSëɖ|͡ĸĽYЇMO@ND׃棺һSłŵĵbxıʶΑBˣOںϷΣCаl˥׃׃ɳƣܛģһйͳߠDΣġBϢСĸ_šoЈH˼šسòֿg͵ĽǶ˵Oxһxϵx࣬ȻڱʵIJePIą^eڣOx˼ĻIĿưlɄӺ׃ʬFԪ״BI򻹾SһԪƣM@NδOxʱǘܲ͸LFһK[20]ǧָ1989ЇλϽڡO࡯ģʽ[21]JСƽʱOxxJژOxژOx[22]cOxͬԣPߌژOxwKOx

PٝͬTx^cɠ

1OxՓͨ˵JOx˥AΠOxѝOָ낀o֮ᣬNʽĘOxֱxFѲɚOxKδһNʽĘOxS˵Oxд@NOxͲՠ¶еIJͬҪǿʶΑBİͼڸYu˼룬ǿTԡͳΙClk£mȻûлDfϰһѭfđС¡ͳߺͱͳжʮ׵ô£׃KûаlҶԸ˳f܉ߡʵ@N״rՓˣnj壬Dzҡ[23]

ִģJuan Linz1970ˡOx^cOĻ[24]

1ԱI˺ͷI˅cMԱȤ½ٝĽMȵԱijҎԱĿǫ@ȡͳ̶ȵһºͷġSࡰֲ͡܊ˡְֻҵҺ͙Cxߣrֵą롢Լյ˽˻ɠJʵ

2IࣺOxξӢԽԽǿ{˰ȫͨ^Y͡ȲʵFߌIԼߌI˺ǿY˹R͵ģߌIx΃HִȣȡQMȵҵlչߌI˿ԇҙCgҡ

3Ԫ޵ĵ؟εwƶԪûζԪʼnŔę

4ʶΑBָʶΑBǷģFʵһֶڣа\ѽp

2СƽʱOxĻСƽʱ_ţƷɣʶΑBlչ˽нȷOxՓ֮ڡSļдOxǘOxԭʼѽ˥ߵʱڡK“ҰRY˵Ļ˵Ǹġllѽˡʱڡѽʧȥǰ݅ӵеԭcϿԡƶȻǴwԭDTԻD߲ܲ^ȥིһcƣMxڅʢУҲء^Ȼͬ^ȥһӵĮһӵķԣȻġ@ԭtǡȶ˾SȶDĻlȻǣֺ֑ͻԡģoڵĿ֑ˏģoڵeԡ[25]

Сƽʱ̎OxKδMxʱ@עСƽʱδԣҲϰƽOxؚwṩ˗l

ģϰƽؚwOxʱ

Sź\ִʮڵĽYйęfoϰƽʱЇѽڶ󽛝硶ˑ¡ԣڽLڵ˙yDy۵Ŀѳ֮ᣬXѵЇ՝uJʶɡƽȡ˙ͬrֵ͡ǬFεĻƶȼܘx@ЩrֵͻƼܘġFDŽZ˵ęʴԡݚ˵ϵĞy^̡зɶoΣБoȻĿõάFʵִ^mԳ־SϵͳΣž׃ɴˌ¹وy˙಻ãœSʣOֻΰlչȻĻ⵽pƻɡؔb׷ҸęòƶȻıϣNìܲeۣMwmǣ؄eǹȺw¼@ʾŞyԵʧڅƣFwƵѽ˷ǸIJɵĵز

@һж־Сƽĸĸ_ѽߵ˱MͷЇҪ׃ҪMʱ

ϰƽĸHйĸϰل졣ϰƽ̨֮\ʿ^ߵڴϣ^иHꠖ̷̨͆Yһӣ˳ʷijʵFЇϰƽȴx˱x糱ЇԸĵ·СƽOxʱëɖ|OxؚwϰƽִĽѱʱһκڰʱһ˙yʱһHPϵȫ携ʱһ₀˳ݡeԺͱʱһûйƽxʱ

ϰƽʱKδeСƽʱ^m_ţ^mץֶҪӲ֮gҲںܴIJͬwFڣ1ȫλǿƣ2ͨ^xѹήΌ֣3ǿbxʶΑBǿ{bҵĽ^I4ͨ^Ƹĸƺ˽н5ָһһ6Uϯϯƣ5СƽʱָӰ˵Ҏأ6ǿͬٔ壬S᠖ʵʩN^7UֹӢ“•ͨ^̨ۇ͸׃xeƶȣȫƣ8̨Mţ܊C܊Ş̨B9ʵʩһһ·սԣcZIࣻ10ʵʩս⽻ҕ硣

οϰƽʱOxĿǰW猦вͬĿ

һ˜Ox˵

Pڡϰƽ˜Oxʱһָcʮͺ\ʮߴͬʮŴ־йeʮСƽĸ_ߣMһµʱǾϰƽ˜OxʱЇѽʮĸ_صεˡ[26]

ŲJϰƽʱ˜Ox傀ߓPx죬VTЇ־йϷһȻDQɣϰ»ص˪ãϰĂJ֪ƺijNRëԭּɷ֣ʹھܽ^rֵʱӈԛQѹh•ҲυȱؓУͬʱ^ëһڵͳεĖ|ڴ조áּȡǰ˽ͽѵν׼lһӘǣ˵c⽻໥֧εģʽʵFˡ߄Ӽtɫۇ[27]

ڶOxؚw˵

Txϰƽ˜Ox^cJϰƽʱֻСƽOxëɖ|OxسָйЇYЙCƣKûгOOķûʸ񘋳һNµͣûбҪʹá˜Oࡱ@һģңǰЇඨx˜OࡱFĄȶԡһcЈYϣ͵‡ķ˹඼ʵ^MԭK“|ŷĹbûвáxЈ[28]ϰƽʱġOxسҪF档һġwIwƻؚwIwơؽʶΑBһͳؽġһԪIҲؽR{ڷ֮ϡAһIwơ[29]

JϰƽՓЄ϶ûз͸eĸĸ_ߣûзĸԇͼİЈxЈӋҲûз_ţͼ]Piŵĸĸ_ţʹЇëʱoΡԪĘOxʱһԪʬF޶ԪOϰƽνּڈԳֺxƶȡĸ_ӋuδζҎϰSôλģ@Ȼ˜OࡣʵϣϰƽģOࡣ׼˵ǣⲿغԸعͬ£QNβ͵Oࡣ[30]

PٝͬTxġOxس^cԼ֮ǰϰƽ˜Ox^cɠһǣMϰƽСƽĸĸ_Mش׃@Щ׃KûͻOxķЇε@ģcëɖ|Oxʱһģgд棬MɾȲѳ³B΢΢ŻڣһЩ¼ݛՓ߳ϰյ˽ûбšǣϰƽʱM֮УOxسǿxϰƽˇҙBĸ﷭ǣv^Сƽʱڽͺ\ִʱڣҲFTµcھ͌ġ¼СƽʱQ֮˜OxʱʵϣoՓСƽ񡢺\ϰƽ회RΣCwFµͳcԷQ֮˜O࣬@෴ģ˘Ox͡ϰƽʱF߿ƼLǡ罻ýw󔵓̄աFͨѶƼʶe•ʶeBʶeDNAͽaϵͳ[31]ǿĿƣҲֻǿƼgKһNµĘOx͡

CPJëɖ|OxʱYᣬЇMСƽOxʱϰƽʱOxʱOxʱĻؚwڴЇOxĕʷ݆أһOxȦ

ϰƽȦԲ᣿JԲҪĺʱͬˡ

OxĮbһ˵cΣyI\LϴXP“Ї@ЩlڡȣϰƽðǰǿЇЇyкy򠑽Їںƽ㡣ģĕʷӛͶ\WߌuĿ^xѽЇˡȇͼ桱ļ顣ΣϰƽęСƽġĂҎأo_ëɖ|СƽǘӵٴΣʮĸ_ѽЇ_ٷe_yԣȻ\ԽԽ@ЩʶΑBeԣ@ЩeԾֻǿֶβܾSŴڡ@ӵeԾһNȮʽġ͸ȡ e֪˵eߌ eߵ֪ҲȻأpɷнµšɵϷֻҪlҲ_˵[32]

ϰƽִ࣬oՓ˳ҲãMҲãĸҲãЇȻСƽʱЇЇ܇ȻСƽ܉ϻMЇѷQڽЇֻҪ漰ΣϰյcСƽʱ󣬡Rܣ@Fǡǡ˵ϰƽؚwOx^́KδɣҲyɡʹЇFijҕwxµģ@һccëɖ|ʱȻͬOxһNO˵ʽһNȺ\˄ӡЇ@Ȼѽû@ӵAʹǷۼtҲԳWݳƷsε˵Ї˺£ϰƽʱf

R˼S·•ðģƁĪÌʱ˵^ÿһʷFΣһDZڶ[ oՓϰƽģµëɖ|Сƽվݵֻ[ЇĘOݻOʮ֮ᣬYĶl̵ġD׃ϰƽֻһʹA@Щ[лoЇOصOȥo赲йOĔЇD͵ij[33]

ϰƽڮһЇOx݆صȦʷSڮһȦǾЇOxĚ磬ʼëɖ|ϰƽ

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[1]ѝOxءOxԴPӛ201032գdhttp://m.aisixiang.com/data/31957.html

[2]ӢJQ֮һһ겼ʲS˵cһ絳ĸ@FŸeMxͬһӣ߽VT룬Ҳԡ֮ӋKOֲ֮yΡҊӢģOxcFdοƌWՓʮڣ57 84ҳ

[3] J. L. Talmon: The Myth of the Nation and the Vision of Revolution (Berkeley and Los Angles, University of California Press,1981)P.13-17

[4]ǧOxĽc☋dЇսԷ1ڣ201610̖

[5]ΰOx߉݋ԇՓhȡصĘOxо2013915գd˼롱Wվhttps://www.aisixiang.com/data/67701.html

[6]ǧOxĽc☋dЇսԷ1ڣ201610̖

[7]APژOx˼Ү˵x2017927գҊĹPWվhttps://www.chinesepen.org/blog/archives/90921

[8] Raymond Aron: Democracy and Totalitarianism, Translated by Valence Ionescu (New YorkWashington, Frederick A. Praeger, Publishers,1969),P.193-194.

[9] Carl J. Friedrich and Zbigniew K. Brzezinski: Totalitarian Dictatorship and Autocracy (Cambridge, Massachusetts, Harvard University Press, 1965) P.22.

[10]ԓǺmһһЪWӢݽxgģڡЇһһڣһľһ£롶m֮VL塷ԡ

[11] Carl J. Friedrich and Zbigniew K. Brzezinski: Totalitarian Dictatorship and Autocracy (Cambridge, Massachusetts, Harvard University Press, 1965) P.22.

[12]ƽOxWԭ201637գd˼롱Wվhttps://www.aisixiang.com/data/97634.html

[13] P˾W˳ݡʼٸߣ‘cʩȡëɖ|2009820գ

http://news.ifeng.com/special/60nianjiaguo/60biaozhirenwu/renwuziliao/200908/0820_7766_1311649.shtml

[14]ëɖ|ˮ䰂xӛ͡tlj30fֵעëëӢ_ĕξ͸˵@һcوFӛ־҄СxmСxS־ˮ䰂ѦơʷxȣҊWëɖ|oëӢëš2013311

dhttp://dangshi.people.com.cn/n/2013/0311/c85037-20749008.html@ЩWָ̩Ļ䡣

[15] W̩ĻcЇ֮ԣ6ҳɽýšɽ201410µ1档

[16]ڡЇġ˜Oxĩ󡷣dЇо20054ڣ91ڣ

[17]ͬϡ

[18]ͬϡ

[19]Ų䣺˜Oࡢս…֡dЇսԷ20183ڣ8ڣ

[20]Tx: ƽ⵱ЇĘOxسdTxЇD֮ͼc·2019棬7-40ҳ

[21]ǧOxĽc☋dЇսԷ1ڣ201610̖

[22]ˡЇġژOxdЇսԷ1ڣ201610̖

[23]ѝOژOx˼Դ200491գd˼롱Wվhttps://www.aisixiang.com/data/4018.html

[24]J ִġ¡˹̩ˣDc얹̵}ŷṲbxŷޡOg㽭2008һ棬46-47ҳ

[25]֮oߵęͷεΡOxʱ܌WSļ2003523գd˼롱Wվhttps://www.aisixiang.com/data/1724.html

[26] łܣϰƽ˜OxʱdЇսԷ20174ڣ5ڣ

[27] Ų䣺˜Oࡢս…֡dЇսԷ20183ڣ8ڣ

[28]Tx: ƽ⵱ЇĘOxسdTxЇD֮ͼc·2019棬7-40ҳ

[29]Tx: ƽ⵱ЇĘOxسdTxЇD֮ͼc·2019棬7-40ҳ

[30]˜O࣬Nβ͵Oࣿ2017124գd̨Wվhttps://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/jiangqisheng/jqs-12042017152813.html

[31]룺ɱcЇĸ߿ƼOx202062գd̨Wվhttps://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/tengbiao/tb-06022020164030.html
[32]ڡЇġ˜Oxĩ󡷣dЇо20054ڣ91ڣ
[33]Tx: ƽ⵱ЇĘOxسdTxЇD֮ͼc·2019棬7-40ҳ
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